The Bank of England’s next Bank Rate decision lands on Thursday 17 September. The headline is unlikely to be the interesting part, since almost nobody expects the rate itself to move. What is worth watching is how the Committee splits.
Where things stand going in
The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July in a 6 to 3 vote, with Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann all preferring an immediate rise to 4%. That was the fifth consecutive hold, and the third meeting running in which the hawkish minority grew: one dissenter in April, two in June, three in July.
Since then, CPI inflation has risen to 2.9% in the 12 months to July, up from 2.6% in June and the first increase since March. The rise came almost entirely from energy. Gas prices jumped 14.7% in the month, the largest monthly increase since October 2022, following the 13% rise in the Ofgem cap that took effect in July.
Why the July print matters less than the headline suggests
Look past the top line and the picture is more balanced. Core CPI, which strips out energy and food, was unchanged at 2.6%. Services inflation, the measure the Committee watches most closely for signs of domestic pressure, eased from 3.6% to 3.4%. That is an energy shock passing through the index, not wages and prices feeding on each other, and the MPC has said it sees little evidence so far of the second-round effects it would need to see before acting.
There is more energy inflation to come. Ofgem confirmed on 26 August that the cap rises another 4% from 1 October, taking a typical dual-fuel direct debit bill to £1,723. The Bank’s own July projection had CPI peaking near 3.2% in the final quarter, and July’s number is broadly on that path. Against all of that, a Reuters poll of economists conducted between 13 and 18 August found close to 90% expect Bank Rate to sit at 3.75% for the remainder of the year.
So the live question in September is not whether rates are cut. It is whether the hold holds, and whether a fourth member joins the case for a rise.
| CPI rose to 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% in June, while core CPI was unchanged at 2.6% and services inflation fell to 3.4% (ONS). Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% since December 2025, most recently on a 6 to 3 vote on 30 July 2026 (Bank of England). Average mortgage rates in early September: 5.63% on a two-year fix and 5.64% on a five-year fix, against an average standard variable rate of 7.13% (Moneyfacts). |
What this means for you
September’s meeting does not carry a Monetary Policy Report. The next full forecast round arrives with the 5 November decision, which means the vote split and the minutes will tell you more on the day than the decision itself.
Fixed rates, meanwhile, are priced off swap rates and the market’s expectations rather than off today’s Bank Rate. They move around a decision regardless of the outcome, and often before it.
If you are coming off a fixed deal in the next six months, you are in a better position reviewing options now than waiting to see what 17 September brings. Most lenders will let you secure a rate up to six months ahead and switch if something better appears, which costs you nothing and removes the guesswork.
At London FS we will be watching the split as closely as the headline number. As July showed, that is usually where the signal is. We will update this article once the decision and minutes are published.
Sources: Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, 30 July 2026; ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: July 2026; Ofgem, energy price cap announcement, 26 August 2026; Reuters poll of economists, 13 to 18 August 2026; Moneyfacts, average mortgage rates.
